Outlining possibilities for the future: work by the Zenon Research think tank

PSL: Can you present Zenon in a few words?

Greg De Temmerman: Zenon started as a prospective project launched in February 2020 by Jean-Baptiste Rudelle. The goal was to explore the “future of humanity” and more specifically to use scientific research to gain insight on current world issues and outline what the future might look like. Over a year ago, the project took on a new form. Zenon became a think tank. We have focused our research on the issues of maintaining an economic growth that is consistent with the planet’s resources. We produce studies on the long-term future in the fields of energy and space, and have just published our first four reports. Each one is based on current research, which is popularized and combined with forward-looking reflection. This balance enables us to integrate our research into the realm of what is plausible, while renewing our approaches to the issues we address. Ultimately, our goal is to provide decision-makers with a clear and innovative summary report on a topic.
The Zenon team is made up of around ten people, including, in addition to myself, a researcher, a young engineer, a few interns from PSL schools, and an analyst. We will soon be joined by a business developer.

PSL: Zenon has a unique structure. Where did you get the idea to create a think tank integrated into Université PSL?

Greg De Temmerman: It all started with the meeting between Jean-Baptiste Rudelle and Cédric Denis-Rémis (Vice President for Development at Université PSL). Jean-Baptiste Rudelle wanted to launch Zenon, but he wanted it to be closely connected to the world of higher education and research. His project was unique and none of the existing formats (partnership chair, etc.) could fully meet his expectations. Over the course of their discussions, he and Cédric Denis-Rémis imagined Zenon’s current structure: a think tank fully integrated into a university ecosystem, bringing together researchers, analysts and engineers. Université PSL, and Mines Paris – PSL in particular as the component school, became the obvious choice for an ideal partner.

PSL: You mentioned Zenon’s first four reports. Can you tell us a little about their goals and the scientific teams involved?

Greg De Temmerman: This was indeed our initial work. They served as test cases to help us build and above all test our approach. This approach is to take ongoing scientific research on an issue, popularize it and combine it with a forward-looking approach.
For example, for the project entitled “Too hot to grow : how global warning can make the world enter into structural economic recession”, we wanted to find a new indicator of the impact of climate change on the economy. Rather than announcing a figure in the billions for a thirty-year period, as has been done in many past publications, we sought to determine the impact of climate change on the growth rate. This data is constantly used by decision makers and so it is much more relevant. Our model shows that the growth rate decreases with climate change to the point of zero growth, when the damages become too significant. This is a rough model, but it is easy to understand and shows the urgent need to act.

On a different note, our report “Going back to the moon to stay” came in response to an order from ANRT for their project entitled “Objectif Lune” (in partnership with CNES). Our mission was to outline what a new lunar economy might look like. To accomplish this, we worked directly with researchers from the Observatoire de Paris-PSL, including Claude Catala, its former president, from CNRS, Isabelle Sourbès Verger, and industry stakeholders. Our report distinguishes between two types of economic models: direct models, which alone could economically justify a return to the moon, and derivative models, which represent indirect opportunities linked to the development of non-economic lunar projects, such as scientific bases. Ultimately, we show that while lunar tourism will represent an economic windfall in years to come, this economy will not be able to make it without significant public funding to help mitigate the risks. This is an important parameter. All lunar economic models will need to take this into account to be viable.

PSL: PSL: How are new research projects determined?

Greg De Temmerman: We work with a scientific committee composed of researchers from PSL and representatives from the industrial world. It’s a place of discussion that results in the creation of working groups on specific topics. Zenon is still in its initial stages, but we soon hope to be able to initiate focus groups bringing together scientists and heads of companies in order to open up new reflection on our fields of investigation.

PSL: What are your next of research topics?

Greg De Temmerman: We currently have a study underway on the speed of technology deployment and another on the available metal and oil reserves. We are organizing a breakfast event on November 18 to present our report entitled Powering the World. PSL researchers are welcome to attend (registration by email). Other events will be held in the months to come in order to present our current reflection and host experts. PSL researchers will also be welcome to attend either as speakers or participants. In fact, on another note, we are offering a class called “Prospective Anthropology: thinking about the future of humanity” for students participating in the PSL Week in November. This promising event is sure to result in lively discussions!